Prof. An Hui
Dalian University of Technology, China
Speech title：Early-Warning System for Risk of External Liquidity Shock in BRICS Countries
The early-warning system (EWS) is recognized in the literature as a method of detecting crises prior to events and to reduce false alarms of possible crises. This study constructs an EWS for BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) countries to examine the risk of an external liquidity shock. The EWS index incorporates the sources, channels, and effects of shock in order to capture the key aspects of shocks within the past 18 years. The findings show that the index peaks during financial crises. We then assess the predictive power of the EWS using an ARMA-GARCH model, which shows that Brazil, India, and South Africa are at great risk of shocks whereas China and Russia have relatively moderate risk in the coming years. The overall results highlight the importance of establishment of an EWS for countries such as Brazil, India, South Africa and other developing countries that have been struggling to cope up with the Covid 19 pandemic.
AN HUI ,PhD in Economics, professor of School of Economics and Management, Dalian University of Technology, and also as a doctoral tutor. Currently as a member of the 13th National People's Congress of Liaoning Province, a member of the 11th Central Committee of the Democratic Construction Association, a deputy chairman of the 15th Dalian Municipal Committee of the Democratic Construction Association, a member of the China Association for Economic Research in the United States, a member of the American Financial Management Annual Conference (FMA), an independent Director of Wafangdian Bearing Group Co., Ltd, and had been as a visiting scholar at the London School of Economics (LSE) and Fordham University in the United States. The main research fields are financial crisis theory and financial risk management. Works publication are including "Research on Generation Mechanism of Modern Financial Crisis and International Transmission Mechanism" and published nearly 100 academic papers in core journals such as Applied Economics and "Financial Research". Presided over and participated in more than 30 national and ministerial-level projects including the National Social Science Fund and the National Social Science Fund. The research achievements have received more than 10 provincial awards, and 30 central and provincial and municipal leadership approvals. Honored as the leading talent project of philosophy and social sciences in the "Yingliao Talent Project" of Liaoning Province, the New Century 151 Talent Project of Zhejiang Province and the Liaoning Province Ten Million Talent Project.